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“I Wanna Be Elected….” Alice Cooper…..Take My Election Poll!

October 31, 2012

I have always loved elections and election coverage irrespective of my own political feelings in the various races. Something about all those numbers and my utter fascination with our electoral college system (which of course is a pretty ridiculous system when you think about it) piques my interest. This is particularly true when the Presidential race is close like the current one. Consider:

  • With 11 battleground states (CO, FL, IA , MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI), there is a total of 146 electoral votes in play for either candidate.
  • Obama has only 201 relatively certain electoral votes and Romney has only 191 relatively certain electoral votes. These are in states like California, New York and Texas who best I can tell are probably unaware that there IS a Presidential election campaign going on.
  • Thus, the electoral vote could conceivably range from anywhere to a 357-191 Obama win  to a 347-201 win for Romney.
  • While unlikely, it is even possible that we could have a tie 269-269, if Romney can win FL, NC, VA, CO, IA and NV.

So now it’s your chance to prognosticate and take my poll(s). Only a few multiple choice questions. I promise it will be quick and easy and fun. I will report results prior to the election results coming out on Tuesday. Poll closes Tuesday 11AM.

From → Public Policy

  1. Jeanette Pablo permalink

    Love your blog! Very fun poll – I am waiting in line to vote early. Election analysis will be fascinating! Last I checked early voting in FL was 50-50, usually Rs have an edge. In DC – I.e., northern VA Obama ads are great. Romney ads – some great some just okay.

  2. Neil Van Dyke permalink

    Can you explain why we still have an electoral college system in this country? I don’t get it.
    (from a disgruntled Vermonter whose vote means absolutely nothing in national elections)

    • It really makes no sense. Obviously, it doesn’t comport with the “one-man, one-vote” principle of the Constitution. However, the electoral college system is IN the Constitution. Meaning to change it requires a constitutional amendment, and if I recall correctly this requires 3/4 of the states to ratify. There is probably always going to be some states (particularly now) that are going to like their status as “swing states” such as some that I listed above. So getting a Constitutional Amendment is by no means an easy thing to do, even for something as sensible as changing the election to a national popular vote. Notably in this election and in many of the recent ones, everyone’s vote would have mattered if we had a popular election system.

  3. Janet Henry permalink

    Thanks for the fun poll, Bruce. Can’t wait for the post mortem!

  4. Geoff Braine permalink

    Obama wins Electoral College, Mitt wins popular vote. Gore heard chuckling. You heard it here first.

  5. Paul Brill permalink

    A week ago I would have picked Romney. But I think his progress has stalled and Obama has now the edge over his challenger. What helps: unemployment in Ohio is lower than the national average. And Sandy may, unwillingly, be in his advantage.

  6. Adam Diamant permalink

    You are correct that the Electoral College seems to go against the principle of “one ‘man’ one vote,” but over the years I’ve become increasingly fond of the EC. The Founding Fathers, I think, created the EC for the same reasons basically that they created our bicameral legislature. They didn’t entirely trust the population at large, and they didn’t want to give the more populated states too much power. The EC represents a perhaps somewhat bizarre balancing of the desire to have the President selected by the majority of the people and the desire to provide some power in the process to the less populated states. It essentially combines the thinking in part behind the creation of the bicameral legislature. The total number of electors is 538, based on the total voting membership of the United States Congress (435 Representatives and 100 Senators) and three electors from the District of Columbia I think the EC is one more element of the elegant balance of power the Founding Fathers created at the time of the dawn of our republic. As a result, the “power” of each state in the EC reflects its population (reflecting the power of each state in the House) and the rights of States to be treated as equal partners (the Senate). Also, I really liked the poll! Keep up the blogging.

  7. Neil Van Dyke permalink

    Interesting, but isn’t the purpose of the legislature essentially to represent the States interests (hence the formula makes some sense with respect to balance) but the President to represent the ‘people’? It seems to me that by having the President elected by popular vote, and the legislature by the existing process you are actually achieving more “balance” between the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branches of government.
    Nevertheless I just can’t get my head around the logic of somebody being elected President of our country who receives less popular votes than his opponent.

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